docs(notes): add 2025-04-10-usa-debt-en.md

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+---
+title: Whether the U.S. Government Could Choose Not to Pay its Debt
+lang: en
+layout: post
+audio: false
+translated: false
+generated: true
+---
+
+The question of whether the U.S. government could choose not to pay its debt, specifically U.S. Treasury bonds (often referred to as "美债" in Chinese), is complex and involves significant legal, economic, and political considerations.
+
+## Legal Considerations
+
+- **Constitutional Argument**: Some scholars argue that the U.S. government cannot legally default on its debt due to Section Four of the 14th Amendment, which states that "the validity of the public debt of the United States... shall not be questioned." This implies that the government has a constitutional obligation to honor its debts[1].
+- **Debt Ceiling Law**: The debt ceiling law restricts the government's ability to borrow money beyond a certain limit. However, if the ceiling is not raised and extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government would be unable to borrow more money, potentially leading to default[1].
+
+## Economic Consequences
+
+- **Global Economic Impact**: A U.S. debt default would have catastrophic effects on both the U.S. and global economies. It could lead to a recession, significant job losses (estimated at up to 8 million), and a sharp decline in stock markets[2][5].
+- **Credit Rating and Interest Rates**: Defaulting would likely result in a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, increasing borrowing costs for both the government and private sector. This could add hundreds of billions of dollars to the national debt over time[2][3].
+- **Financial Stability**: The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency means that a default would undermine confidence in the dollar and potentially destabilize international financial systems[5].
+
+## Political and Practical Considerations
+
+- **Political Will**: Politically, choosing not to pay the debt is highly unlikely due to the severe economic and political backlash it would provoke. The U.S. government has historically avoided default by raising the debt ceiling or using extraordinary measures[1].
+- **Monetary Policy**: While the U.S. government could theoretically print money to pay off debts, this would lead to severe inflation, eroding the purchasing power of the dollar and causing widespread economic hardship[4].
+
+In summary, while there are legal arguments against the constitutionality of the debt ceiling, the U.S. government is unlikely to choose not to pay its debts due to the severe economic and political consequences such an action would entail. Instead, the government typically seeks to raise the debt ceiling or implement other financial measures to avoid default.
+
+Citations:
+[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling
+[2] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling
+[3] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/011404.asp
+[4] https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1cjrnlo/eli5_why_cant_we_us_just_absolve_ourselves_of_the/
+[5] https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/05/5-way-a-us-debt-default-could-affect-you-and-your-money/
+[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
+[7] https://www.narfe.org/advocacy/issue-briefs-and-fact-sheets/debt-limit-frequently-asked-questions/
+[8] https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/what-would-happen-if-the-government-defaults-on-its-debt/
+[9] https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/3123
+[10] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
+[11] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-a-debt-default-could-affect-you
+[12] https://treasurydirect.gov/help-center/public-debt-faqs/
+[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK5dpPzjaPA
+[14] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-the-risks-of-a-rising-federal-debt/
+[15] https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt14-S4-1/ALDE_00000849/
+[16] https://budget.house.gov/press-release/the-consequences-of-debt
+[17] https://www.npr.org/2023/05/22/1177570119/a-look-at-some-of-the-consequences-if-the-u-s-defaults-on-its-debt
+[18] https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit
+[19] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_rsF8eVPqY
+[20] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/default-debt-what-happens-next.html
+
+---
+Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share