This repository demonstrates using the BinaryPredictor agent by Chronulus AI to estimate win probabilities for match-ups in the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
For the first match up, the following prompt was used in Claude to setup the Chronulus Session and get the first prediction. Replace the items in {{brackets}} with your own values.
The 2025 NCAA Men's basketball tournament starts tomorrow. I would like to make predictions for the first round of the tournament.
Please create a new Chronulus Session for this and setup a data model that you can plug in data for each match up separately. I want to reuse the same BinaryPredictor for each match up. In the task, be sure to specific that we want to predict the probability that team 1 wins the matchup.
As input data, I will give you images and injury reports (if one is available) for each match up in folder in my workspace. I have also include a PDF of the bracket and a text file with the current schedule in my workspace.
Pass these images and documents to Chronulus. Additionally, please include one field for "Additional context" and one for a list of additional images. In some matches, I will want to provide more details or additional images that are not available for other matches. These fields will be used for those.
In the fields that you create that contain information about a specific team, prefix the fields with 'team_1' and 'team_2' according how the team is listed in the match up I provide.
When you have the predictions, please save the results as html in `picks'.
Let's start..
Get the Chronulus predictions for this match up in {{'round1-south'}}:
{{(8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton, 12:15 p.m. | CBS}}
From this conversation, we asked Claude to save a JSON copy of the sessions information for future reference. This file is located at mens-bracket/sessions/session.json and contains:
- session_id - a unique id that can be reused across Claude conversations orient the BinaryPredictor agent about the situation and task.
- situation - the situation defined in the Chronulus session
- task - the task defined in the Chronulus session
- input_data_model - a example of the input data model that Claude successfully used when passing inputs to the agent on during the first conversation.
In subsequent conversations, the following prompt was used in Claude to reuse the session from the first match up. Again, replace the values in {{brackets}} with your own.
The session id referenced in this prompt is taken directly from the session info that was saved to mens-bracket/sessions/session.json. You would want to replace this with the session id from your own conversation.
The 2025 NCAA Men's basketball tournament starts tomorrow. I would like to make predictions for the first round of the tournament.
Please reuse the Chronulus session with session id = {{'1b330f4b-f0ac-5c06-975d-9f41c5abf58d'}} for this and setup a data model that you can plug in data for each match up separately. I want to reuse the same BinaryPredictor for each match up.
As input data, I will give you images and injury reports (if one is available) for each match up in folder in my workspace. I have also include a PDF of the bracket and a text file with the current schedule in my workspace.
Pass these images and documents to Chronulus. Additionally, please include one field for "Additional context" and one for a list of additional images. In some matches, I will want to provide more details or additional images that are not available for other matches. These fields will be used for those.
In the fields that you create that contain information about a specific team, prefix the fields with 'team_1' and 'team_2' according how the team is listed in the match up I provide. This needed because the session is setup to predict the probability that team 1 will win. So need to make sure this is correctly labeled.
When you have the predictions, please save the results as html in `picks'.
Let's start..
Please ask Chronulus to predict the probability that the first team listed in the following matchup will win. Use 5 experts.
Get the Chronulus predictions for this match up in {{'round1-midwest'}}:
{{(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point, 12:40 p.m. | truTV}}
This is the schedule of games for the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament along with win probability predictions for each team provided by Chronulus AI.
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | South | Alabama State (16) | Saint Francis (16) | 50.65% | 49.35% |
| Mar 18 | South | San Diego State (11) | North Carolina (11) | 45.43% | 54.57% |
| Mar 19 | East | American University (16) | Mount St. Mary's (16) | 51.41% | 48.59% |
| Mar 19 | Midwest | Texas (11) | Xavier (11) | 49.87% | 50.13% |
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | South | Louisville (8) | Creighton (9) | 46.32% | 53.67% |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | Purdue (4) | High Point (13) | 85.76% | 14.23% |
| Mar 20 | East | Wisconsin (3) | Montana (14) | 81.15% | 18.85% |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | Houston (1) | SIU Edwardsville (16) | 97.20% | 2.80% |
| Mar 20 | South | Auburn (1) | Alabama State (16) | 97.80% | 2.20% |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | Clemson (5) | McNeese (12) | 69.89% | 30.11% |
| Mar 20 | East | BYU (6) | VCU (11) | 49.95% | 50.05% [upset watch - refresh is more experts and fresh news] |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | Gonzaga (8) | Georgia (9) | 49.01% | 50.99% |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | Tennessee (2) | Wofford (15) | 91.79% | 8.21% |
| Mar 20 | West | Kansas (7) | Arkansas (10) | 51.16% | 48.84% [upset watch - refresh with injury news / tips] |
| Mar 20 | South | Texas A&M (4) | Yale (13) | 52.81% | 47.19% [upset watch - refresh with injury news / tips] |
| Mar 20 | West | Missouri (6) | Drake (11) | 46.53% | 53.47% [upset alert] |
| Mar 20 | Midwest | UCLA (7) | Utah State (10) | 44.61% | 55.39% [upset alert] |
| Mar 20 | West | St. John's (2) | Omaha (15) | 88.90% | 11.10% |
| Mar 20 | South | Michigan (5) | UC San Diego (12) | 57.86% | 42.14% |
| Mar 20 | West | Texas Tech (3) | UNC Wilmington (14) | 82.15% | 17.85% |
| Mar 21 | East | Mississippi State (8) | Baylor (9) | 50.78% | 49.22% |
| Mar 21 | East | Alabama (2) | Robert Morris (15) | 89.71% | 10.29% |
| Mar 21 | South | Iowa State (3) | Lipscomb (14) | 81.42% | 18.58% |
| Mar 21 | West | Memphis (5) | Colorado State (12) | 55.11% | 44.89% [upset watch - refresh with news on injuries] |
| Mar 21 | East | Duke (1) | Mount Saint Mary's (16) | 97.95% | 2.05% |
| Mar 21 | East | Saint Mary's (7) | Vanderbilt (10) | 61.78% | 38.22% |
| Mar 21 | South | Ole Miss (6) | North Carolina (11) | 47.13% | 52.87% [upsert alert - if you can call UNC an underdog] |
| Mar 21 | West | Maryland (4) | Grand Canyon (13) | 71.93% | 28.07% |
| Mar 21 | West | Florida (1) | Norfolk State (16) | 97.26% | 2.74% |
| Mar 21 | Midwest | Kentucky (3) | Troy (14) | 83.20% | 16.80% |
| Mar 21 | South | Marquette (7) | New Mexico (10) | 56.45% | 43.55 |
| Mar 21 | East | Arizona (4) | Akron (13) | 76.60% | 23.40% |
| Mar 21 | West | UConn (8) | Oklahoma (9) | 50.84% | 49.16% [Update with news on Godwin's status] |
| Mar 21 | Midwest | Illinois (6) | Xavier (11) | 47.67% | 52.33% |
| Mar 21 | South | Michigan State (2) | Bryant (15) | 88.68% | 11.32% |
| Mar 21 | East | Oregon (5) | Liberty (12) | 65.53% | 34.47% |
These probabilities were estimated before 12pm EST on March 20th using data for games through March 19th.
The games listed here explore the bracket hypothetical case that each of the picks from the first round will be / were correct.
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | Auburn (1) | Creighton (9) | 64.42% | 35.58% | |
| Midwest | Clemson (5) | Purdue (4) | 38.37% | 61.63% | |
| East | VCU (11) | Wisconsin (3) | 28.25% | 71.75% | |
| Midwest | Houston (1) | Georgia (9) | 80.78% | 19.22% | |
| Midwest | Utah st (10) | Tennessee (2) | 23.22% | 76.78% | |
| West | Kansas (7) | St. John's (2) | 29.08% | 70.92% | |
| South | Michigan (5) | Texas A&M (4) | 42.19% | 57.81% | |
| West | Drake (11) | Texas Tech (3) | 30.31% | 69.69% | |
| South | North Carolina (11) | Iowa St (3) | 38.35% | 61.65% | |
| South | Oregon (5) | Arizona (4) | 44.39% | 55.61% | |
| South | Memphis (5) | Maryland (4) | 47.62% | 52.38% |
These probabilities were estimated after 12pm EST on March 20th using data for games through March 19th. However, none of the match-ups estimated in this section depend on results of games from March 20. So while they are not useful for bracket-making (past the deadeline), they are still free of potential data leakage.
The games listed here explore the bracket hypothetical case that each of the picks from the first round will be / were correct.
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | Marquette (7) | Michigan St (2) | 36.39% | 63.61% | |
| Midwest | Xavier (11) | Kentucky (3) | 27.52% | 72.48% | |
| West | Florida (1) | UConn (8) | 51.94% | 48.06% | |
| East | Saint Mary's (7) | Alabama (2) | 33.16% | 66.84% | |
| East | Duke (1) | Mississippi St (8) | 73.85% | 26.15% |
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | McNeese (12) | Purdue (4) | 23.40% | 76.60% | |
| West | Arkansas (10) | St. John's (2) | 29.10% | 70.90% | |
| South | Michigan (5) | Texas A&M (4) | 42.94% | 57.06% | |
| West | Drake (11) | Texas Tech (3) | 26.12% | 73.88% | |
| South | Auburn (1) | Creighton (9) | 61.81% | 38.19% | |
| East | BYU (6) | Wisconsin (3) | 39.09% | 60.91% | |
| Midwest | Houston (1) | Gonzaga (8) | 69.78% | 30.22% | |
| Midwest | UCLA (7) | Tennessee (2) | 28.78% | 71.22% |
| Date | Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | Florida (1) | UConn (8) | 50.95% | 49.05% | |
| East | Duke (1) | Baylor (9) | 73.82% | 26.17% | |
| Midwest | Illinois (6) | Kentucky (3) | 40.21% | 59.79% | |
| East | Saint Mary's (7) | Alabama (2) | 30.46% | 69.54% | |
| West | Colorado St. (12) | Maryland (4) | 34.75% | 65.25% | |
| South | Mississippi (6) | Iowa St. (3) | 36.09% | 63.91% | |
| South | New Mexico (10) | Michigan St. (2) | 29.74% | 70.26% | |
| East | Oregon (5) | Arizona (4) | 41.68% | 58.32% |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | BYU (6) | Alabama (1) | 33.23% | 66.77% | txt |
| East | Alabama (1) | BYU (6) | 67.85% | 32.15% | txt |
| West | Maryland (4) | Florida (1) | 31.11% | 68.89% | txt |
| West | Florida (1) | Maryland (4) | 59.44% | 40.56% | txt |
| East | Arizona (4) | Duke (1) | 41.15% | 58.85% | txt |
| East | Duke (1) | Arizona (4) | 51.53% | 48.47% | txt |
| West | Arkansas (10) | Texas Tech (3) | 34.57% | 65.43% | txt |
| West | Texas Tech (3) | Arkansas (10) | 56.93% | 43.07% | txt |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | Ole Miss (6) | Michigan St. (2) | 34.52% | 65.48%/td> | txt |
| South | Michigan St. (2) | Ole Miss (6) | 50.25% | 49.75% | txt |
| Midwest | Kentucky (3) | Tennessee (2) | 46.80% | 53.20%/td> | txt |
| Midwest | Tennessee (2) | Kentucky (3) | 47.65% | 52.35% | txt |
| South | Michigan (5) | Auburn (1) | 36.56% | 63.44%/td> | txt |
| South | Auburn (1) | Michigan (5) | 49.46% | 50.54% | txt |
| Midwest | Purdue (4) | Houston (1) | 36.20% | 63.80%/td> | txt |
| Midwest | Houston (1) | Purdue (4) | 55.77% | 44.23% | txt |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | Texas Tech (3) | Florida (1) | 36.95% | 63.05% | txt |
| West | Florida (1) | Texas Tech (3) | 59.50% | 40.50% | txt |
| East | Alabama (2) | Duke (1) | 38.51% | 61.49% | txt |
| East | Duke (1) | Alabama (2) | 57.90% | 42.10% | txt |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | Tennessee (2) | Houston (1) | 37.31% | 62.69% | txt |
| Midwest | Houston (1) | Tennessee (2) | 59.16% | 40.84% | txt |
| South | Michigan St (2) | Auburn (1) | 38.37% | 61.63% | txt |
| South | Auburn (1) | Michigan St (2) | 47.05% | 52.95% | txt |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio, TX | Florida (1) | Auburn (1) | 47.08% | 52.91% | txt |
| San Antonio, TX | Auburn (1) | Florida (1) | 46.80% | 53.20% | txt |
| San Antonio, TX | Houston (1) | Duke (1) | 49.46% | 50.54% | txt |
| San Antonio, TX | Duke (1) | Houston (1) | 42.28% | 57.72% | txt |
| Region | Team 1 (Seed) | Team 2 (Seed) | Team 1 Win % | Team 2 Win % | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio, TX | Florida (1) | Houston (1) | 45.69% | 54.31% | txt |
| San Antonio, TX | Houston (1) | Florida (1) | 48.27% | 51.73% | txt |
| Round | City | Venue | Dates | Host |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Four | Dayton, Ohio | UD Arena | March 18 - 19 | University of Dayton |
| First/Second | Lexington, KY | Rupp Arena | March 20 - 22 | University of Kentucky |
| First/Second | Providence, RI | Amica Mutual Pavilion | March 20 - 22 | Providence College |
| First/Second | Seattle, WA | Climate Pledge Arena | March 21 - 23 | University of Washington |
| First/Second | Wichita, KS | Intrust Bank Arena | March 20 - 22 | Wichita State University |
| First/Second | Cleveland, OH | Rocket Arena | March 21 - 23 | Mid-American Conference |
| First/Second | Denver, CO | Ball Arena | March 20 - 22 | Mountain West Conference |
| First/Second | Milwaukee, WI | Fiserv Forum | March 21 - 23 | Marquette University |
| First/Second | Raleigh, NC | Lenovo Center | March 21 - 23 | NC State University |
| East Regional | Newark, NJ | Prudential Center | March 27 - 29 | Seton Hall University |
| West Regional | San Francisco, CA | Chase Center | March 27 - 29 | Pac-12 Conference |
| South Regional | Atlanta, GA | State Farm Arena | March 28 - 30 | Georgia Institute of Technology |
| Midwest Regional | Indianapolis, IN | Lucas Oil Stadium | March 28 - 30 | IU Indianapolis/Horizon League |
| Final Four | San Antonio, TX | Alamodome | April 5 & 7 |
Win probability predictions provided by the Chronulus AI BinaryPredictor agent.