Skip to content

[ML] Forecast results show non intuitive trends #124

Closed
@pheyos

Description

@pheyos

Found in version

  • 6.3.0-bc11

Steps to reproduce

  1. Create a multi metric ML job (e.g. for the farequote dataset with 15m buckets and mean(responsetime) partition_field_name=airline)
  2. Create a 28d forecast on the results

Actual result
The forecast shows a trend to infinity or zero in an exponential manner, which is sometimes unexpected when looking at the actual data the forecast is based on. And it is a significant change compared to the results of the same forecast in version 6.2.5:

forecast_comparison_630_625

Additional information
In other datasets with more base data for the forecast (e.g. cloudwatch) the same trend can be seen:
forecast_05

Metadata

Metadata

Assignees

Labels

Type

No type

Projects

No projects

Milestone

No milestone

Relationships

None yet

Development

No branches or pull requests

Issue actions